Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis
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Analysis: The market lacks new liquidity, and approximately 40% of Altcoin are trading near historical lows.
ChainCatcher reports that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that approximately 40% of Altcoin are currently near their all-time lows. Indicators show that these tokens have fallen to within 25% of their all-time lows, reflecting the extreme weakness of the Altcoin market. Darkfost noted that this percentage rose to 45% when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in late June. Latest data shows this percentage is approximately 39.9%. He also pointed out that the current market environment has changed significantly. CMC statistics show that there are approximately 53.5 million existing cryptocurrencies, with about 60,000 new tokens appearing daily. Without strong incremental liquidity, most cryptocurrencies face the risk of failure.
Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
Analysis: Bitcoin's 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, historically corresponding to multiple bear market bottoms.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, data from CryptoQuant showed that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% year-to-date, with its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio briefly dropping to around -21, its lowest level since the end of 2022, and currently remaining close to -20. The Sharpe Ratio measures an asset's risk-adjusted return. A negative value means investors are taking on higher volatility risk, but the actual return is lower than that of risk-free assets (such as 10-year US Treasury bonds). Given the current US Treasury yield of approximately 4.45%, this indicator reflects a significant deterioration in Bitcoin's risk-return performance over the past year. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, a Sharpe Ratio falling to such an extreme negative value often indicates that market selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. Similar levels have appeared near the bottoms of the bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, subsequently accompanied by the start of a new upward cycle for Bitcoin.
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