Bitcoin breaks above 200-day moving average for first time since November
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Data: Bitcoin's NUPL 100-day moving average is approaching the zero line, potentially becoming a key indicator for determining the bottom of this cycle.
According to a report by Mars Finance, CryptoQuant analyst thechessONCHAIN points out that Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently 0.158, with its 100-day exponential moving average at 0.215 and its 30-day exponential moving average at 0.155. On June 2nd, the 30-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating weakening market momentum, but both are still currently above the zero line.
SpaceX was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week; historical warnings point to post-inclusion volatility. TeraWulf's Q1 HPC leasing revenue surpassed mining's high-margin annualized revenue of $630 million for the first time.
According to ChainCatcher and BBX data, the world's largest IPO completed its index inclusion milestone yesterday, marking a historic turning point in the valuation logic of mining companies' AI transformation. Key developments are as follows: SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first company in history to have its largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The previous two largest additions to the index—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a period of decline after inclusion, rather than initiating a new round of growth." Analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 completed a "forced buy" at the time of inclusion, and without new fundamental catalysts, the stock price often corrects after the technical buying subsides. SpaceX currently faces specific risks including: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (primarily due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate of $62 per share, implying a downside of approximately 70% from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, custodied in Coinbase Prime), Nasdaq 100 inclusion will trigger larger-scale SPCX holdings by passive funds, further narrowing the indirect exposure of traditional index investors to Bitcoin assets. According to the latest analysis, TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) reported $21 million in high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for approximately 62% of its total revenue of $34 million. This marks the first time TeraWulf has surpassed Bitcoin mining revenue—a historic reversal in revenue structure since its transformation into an AI/HPC infrastructure company. This represents a 117% increase compared to the $9.7 million in HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company currently has AI/HPC leases totaling over 522 megawatts signed with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annualized high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million. Its energy mix consists of nuclear power and hydropower, with an average electricity cost of approximately $0.035/kWh, among the lowest of its peers in the mining industry. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid connection capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price range, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods from $23 to $37, and Clear...
SpaceX shares fell 6.83%, dropping below its opening price on its first day of trading.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Jiemian News, SpaceX closed at $149.47 on July 7th (Eastern Time), a sharp drop of 6.83% for the day. The stock price fell as low as $149.09 during the session, marking a new low since its Nasdaq listing on June 12th and falling below its opening price of $150 on its first day of trading, though still above its IPO price of $135. This occurred on the same day as the stock's official inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, which should have been a positive window for passive capital inflows. However, the stock price moved in the opposite direction, compounded by a broader market correction in tech stocks, pushing the stock into a deep correction phase.
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
SpaceX's marked address transferred a small amount of BTC for the first time in six months, suspected to be a test transfer.
According to BlockBeats, on July 8th, Arkham monitoring revealed that an address tagged as SpaceX transferred Bitcoin for the first time in six months. Data shows that SpaceX address 15atF initiated a test BTC transaction of approximately $88 to SpaceX address bc1q9, which appears to be a test transfer.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has recorded a negative premium for 50 consecutive days, setting a new record for the longest streak in history.
PANews reported on July 8th that, according to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative premium territory for 50 consecutive days, setting a new record for the longest such streak, with the latest value at -0.0696%. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase (a major US trading platform) and the average price in the global market. A negative premium typically reflects significant selling pressure in the US market, decreased investor risk appetite, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.