Morning Minute: Strategy CEO Says Selling The Bottom Was Correct Move
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Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a period of bottoming out; Strategy's sale of Bitcoin did not trigger panic.
According to a recent report by Bitfinex Alpha, as Odaily by Odaily, Strategy recently conducted its first large-scale Bitcoin sale, but the market showed strong resilience and no significant selling pressure emerged. Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of $57,803 on July 1st, and its performance in July remains positive, consistent with the views expressed in Bitfinex Alpha's previous report (No. 212), suggesting a potential market correction this month. Data shows that Strategy may have executed a BTC sale between June 29 and July 2, but the price of Bitcoin still saw a positive weekly increase during the same period, rising approximately 10.5% from its cycle low. Furthermore, on the last trading day of last week and the first trading day of this week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows exceeding $200 million per day, ending a previous 10-day streak of net outflows, with a cumulative outflow of $2.73 billion. June was a challenging month for Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows for nine consecutive weeks, reaching nearly $4.06 billion in June alone. However, these redemptions primarily reflect authorized participants (APs) returning ETF units and a decrease in passive funding demand, rather than indicating a large-scale immediate sale of Bitcoin through on-chain markets. The market is currently unable to fully determine whether investors have digested recent changes in fund flows, but spot trading volume does not fully reflect the impact of the previous large-scale outflows. With changes in ETF asset allocation and a return to positive fund flows, the Bitcoin market may face new variables in July. After a brief dip following the announcement of the Strategy sale, BTC prices quickly stabilized and have now returned to the lower end of the first quarter trading range, exceeding pre-announcement levels. ETF fund flows have recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, and the $61,000 level has become a crucial dividing line between bullish and bearish forces in the market. Bitcoin is currently in a downtrend on a higher timeframe, but the market structure is changing. Approximately 10.83 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss state, while about 9.22 million BTC remain profitable, marking the first time that the number of losing BTC has exceeded the number of profitable BTC. Historically, this phase typically indicates significant pressure on spot holders and often approaches the bottoming phase of a bear market. However, a true macro bottom still needs confirmation from key indicators, such as Bitcoin consistently recovering to its current "True Market Mean" of around $71,500. While the current market environment may dampen sentiment in the short term, it also creates conditions for long-term funds to absorb selling pressure. As long-term holders and some whale re-accumulate, Bitcoin is shifting from low-conviction holders to high-conviction investors, and the next two to three months may be a crucial window for confirming a temporary bottom.
'The Right Trade': Strategy CEO Has No Regrets Selling Bitcoin at $60K Before Buying Back Higher
Phong Le said Strategy’s cost of capital—not Bitcoin’s price—drove its decision to sell nearly 7,000 BTC before resuming purchases above $80,000.
Market Outlook for Next Week: Fed and ECB Meeting Minutes Released, Market Focuses on Interest Rate Hike Path and Gold Price Movement
Mars Finance reports that on July 5th, global markets will see the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes, and several important economic data releases next week. The market will focus on the Fed's latest assessment of inflation and interest rate paths, as well as US services PMI and initial jobless claims data. Gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term. Key points to watch include: • Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Released early Thursday morning Beijing time, the market hopes to glean more details about the first meeting chaired by new Fed Chairman Warsh to determine if there is still room for rate hikes by the end of the year. The interest rate market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December and believes there is a certain probability of an earlier move in October. • Fed Officials' Speeches: Officials such as Williams, Logan, and Waller will deliver speeches, and the market will focus on whether they will adjust their hawkish stance due to recent weak non-farm payroll data. • European Central Bank Minutes: Released on Thursday, investors will focus on the European Central Bank's latest assessment of economic growth, inflation, and subsequent monetary policy. * **Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Decision:** The market expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike; attention will be focused on whether it delivers on its previous hawkish guidance. * **Important Economic Data:** Data including the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, the final S&P Global Services PMI, EIA crude oil inventories, and initial jobless claims will be released successively, providing new clues for the market to assess the US economic and interest rate outlook. * **Gold Outlook:** HSBC believes that with real interest rates remaining high and the US dollar relatively strong, gold may maintain range-bound trading in the short term, but central bank gold purchases, ETF inflows, and the global trend of de-dollarization still support its medium- to long-term upward trend. * **Earnings Season Begins:** PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi's, and other companies will be among the first to release their second-quarter results. The market will focus on consumer demand, profit margins, and full-year earnings guidance, serving as a warm-up for the mid-July bank earnings season.
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