Kalshi US visits soar 1,500% as regulatory pressure mounts
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Data: June forecast market trading volume surged, with Kalshi and Polymarket combined soaring 75% to $44.8 billion.
According to Mars Finance, as reported by The Block, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US combined traded $44.8 billion in June, a 75% increase from $25.66 billion in May. Kalshi performed best, with a June trading volume of $31.5 billion, an 87.4% increase month-over-month; Polymarket's main platform traded $10.26 billion, a 45% increase; and Polymarket US traded $3.04 billion. The report indicates that this surge in trading volume is primarily due to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which opened on June 11th. Kalshi's World Cup champion prediction market has already attracted over $832 million in bets.
Tensions Flare as CME, Kalshi Execs Clash Over Prediction Markets in DC
CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy and Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara traded barbs during a CFTC meeting over prediction markets, manipulation, and regulatory standards.
With key component prices soaring, PC manufacturers are accelerating the introduction of Chinese memory suppliers such as Changchun and Changxin to reduce costs.
According to a report by the Commercial Times, the soaring prices of key components such as memory and SSDs have significantly increased the cost pressure on equipping mainstream laptops with high-capacity storage. Chinese memory and storage components, with their price advantages, are gradually penetrating the PC supply chain. Brands including Lenovo, ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte, Acer, and even Apple are accelerating the certification, adoption, and platform calibration of related products. The report points out that Lenovo has expanded its use of Chinese components this year, and recently, flagship laptops equipped with Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) SSDs have appeared on North American cross-border e-commerce platforms. Apple is also reportedly lobbying the US government to purchase CXMT memory to cope with rising prices. Among Taiwanese motherboard manufacturers, MSI recently announced that it has become the first to complete the verification and calibration of Changxin Memory's DDR5 chips in the AMD platform's DDR5-8000+. Gigabyte has also adopted Changxin Memory chips in some motherboard models. ASUS and Acer have introduced memory modules from mainland Chinese companies such as BIWIN through their own brand memory certification or OEM models. Industry analysts believe that although the short-term imbalance between memory supply and demand has prompted non-mainland Chinese brands to accelerate relevant certifications, Taiwanese brands still emphasize that their long-term contracted Korean manufacturers remain their main supply partners due to the limited production capacity of mainland Chinese manufacturers.
Kalshi's trading volume hit a record high of $9.4 billion in June, with the World Cup driving a surge in prediction market trading.
According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the trading volume of the US prediction market platform Kalshi rose to approximately $9.4 billion in June, an increase of nearly 77% from approximately $5.3 billion in May, setting a new record. During the same period, Polymarket International's trading volume increased from approximately $3.5 billion to approximately $4.3 billion. Data shows that the World Cup has become the main catalyst for the growth in prediction market trading. As this World Cup expands to 48 teams for the first time, the number of matches and knockout stage scenarios has increased, driving active trading in single-match contracts. For example, the round of 16 match between Canada and Morocco saw trading volumes exceeding $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket. However, the rapid increase in trading volume has also further fueled regulatory controversy. Several US states continue to advocate that sports event contracts should be subject to betting regulations, rather than the derivatives market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Meanwhile, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) recently warned that some event-based contracts may fall under the existing regulatory scope of binary options. Analysts believe that the World Cup demonstrated the ability of prediction markets to attract liquidity during major events, but whether sports prediction contracts should be regulated as financial derivatives or betting remains a core regulatory issue for the industry.
Jefferies warns investors against buy the dips Circle shares as they fall, citing new competitive pressure from Open USD.
PANews reported on July 2nd that, according to CoinDesk, the formation of the Open USD stablecoin alliance has sparked market concerns about competitive pressure on Circle. Circle's stock price plummeted 17% on Tuesday but rebounded 5% on Wednesday. Analysts at investment bank Jefferies believe Circle's approximately 25% stablecoin market share is under pressure and advise investors against buy the dips. They cite the new alliance's support from over 140 companies, its significant distribution network advantage, and the inclusion of Circle's largest distribution partner, Coinbase. Their business agreement is reportedly set to be renewed in August, potentially further impacting USDC's growth potential. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire responded that stablecoins are a network business built over many years, and USDC's integration scale, liquidity, and regulatory approvals are difficult to replicate quickly.
Taiwan passed the Virtual Asset Services Act, formally establishing a regulatory framework for encryption.
According to Mars Finance, as reported by The Block, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed the Virtual Asset Service Act in its third reading. The bill has been submitted to Taiwan's leader Lai Ching-te for signature, and the implementation date is expected to be announced within 10 days. The key points of the bill are as follows: • Licensing Requirements: Virtual asset service providers must apply for a license from the Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC). Platforms that have completed AML registration have a 12-month application period and a 21-month approval period. • Stablecoin Regulation: Issuance or management of stablecoins requires dual approval from the Central Bank and the FSC, and the maintenance of sufficient reserves. • Compliance Requirements: Covering aspects such as cybersecurity, customer asset segregation, and internal controls. • Criminal Penalties: Illegal operation carries a maximum penalty of 7 years imprisonment and a maximum fine of NT$100 million (approximately US$3.14 million); cryptocurrency market manipulation carries a maximum penalty of 10 years imprisonment and a maximum fine of NT$200 million (approximately US$6.28 million). Industry insiders point out that crypto companies that previously operated in a legal gray area will no longer be able to rely on regulatory ambiguity, and traditional financial institutions will also be allowed to apply for VASP licenses in the future, which may lead to more intense competitive pressure for existing crypto companies.