Markets tilt toward September rate hikes: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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Markets pivot to September Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin approached the August monthly close below key resistance with markets once again pricing in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September.
Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report
Strategy’s biggest risk may not be a Bitcoin crash, but losing access to the capital markets that help it service $1.76 billion in annual obligations.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 52.7%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 26.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.9%.
Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a rate hike in September is 46.2%.
According to ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%.
Hao Lishun, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Revenue of large-scale robot companies exceeded 90 billion yuan in the first five months of this year, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the past five years.
According to Mars Finance, at a press conference for the 2026 World Robot Conference, Hao Lishun, Deputy Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that from January to May this year, the operating revenue of my country's large-scale robot enterprises exceeded 90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, with an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the past five years. The supporting capabilities for key components have significantly improved, the intelligence level of complete robot products has continued to rise, and the layout in cutting-edge areas such as humanoid robots is accelerating. The technological foundation, including operating systems and simulation platforms, is being built at a faster pace. High-value application scenarios are constantly being enriched, cultivating more new human-machine collaborative positions. The industry's development is gradually shifting from competition based on single-product technology and market size to the integration of supply chain collaboration and development ecosystem. (Reporter Li Mingming, Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily)