Ledger CTO urges AI bug hunter responsibility…

According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, renowned analyst degentrading published an analysis of the market's sharp fluctuations, noting that recently strong stocks suffered a "massacre," potentially one of the most severe sell-offs since the dot-com bubble, with an overall decline of approximately 24%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.6%, and the S&P 500 only slightly declined, but the underlying sector rotation was extremely volatile. The fact that Apple bucked the trend with a 4.64% increase suggests that the semiconductor sector was under pressure. Given that many hedge funds were implicitly long on recently strong stocks, it is expected that most of them have been forced out or actively reduced their positions in this round. This morning's closing auction in the US stock market was relatively orderly, with the closing strength exceeding expectations. Looking ahead, degentrading believes attention should be paid to the trading reactions of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics during the Korean market session after SanDisk's 14% plunge. degentrading stated that despite his significant personal portfolio risk exposure, he will remain steadfast.

According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, amidst the recent continuous correction in the semiconductor sector, several Wall Street institutions have voiced their opinions, generally believing that the current adjustment presents an opportunity for investors to "buy on dips." However, unlike past recommendations to allocate across the entire semiconductor sector, institutions generally believe that AI investment has entered a phase of selective stock picking. Goldman Sachs stated that AI chip trading has entered a more selective phase, and does not recommend continuing to "buy a basket" of semiconductor stocks. They remain optimistic about specific sub-sectors such as CPUs, ASICs, memory, and semiconductor equipment, specifically highlighting AMD and Applied Materials. JPMorgan Chase believes that the recent correction in semiconductor stocks presents a good entry window, as AI chip demand remains in a long-term upward cycle, with new capacity not expected to be significantly released until around 2028, and the industry's supply and demand structure remains healthy. Bank of America maintains its optimistic outlook on the long-term boom cycle of AI semiconductors, believing the industry is still in the middle of an 8- to 10-year growth cycle, and the global semiconductor market size is expected to continue to expand. They recommend focusing on industry leaders such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Lam Research, and KLA. UBS stated that the long-term investment logic for AI remains unchanged, and the short-term fluctuations in the semiconductor sector actually provide long-term investors with opportunities to gradually build positions. They recommend taking advantage of market corrections to buy on dips. Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term prospects for AI chips remain positive, but with the sector's significant rise, the market will focus more on earnings realization capabilities. Funds may gradually rotate from some chip stocks to AI infrastructure beneficiaries such as cloud computing, and investors should pay more attention to individual stock selection. Overall, several Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and UBS, have recently released similar signals: the semiconductor correction is not the end of the AI rally, but rather provides a new window for investment. However, the market has moved from a phase of "broad-based sector gains" to one of "selecting leading companies," and future performance will depend more on companies' earnings realization capabilities and the sustainability of demand for AI infrastructure.

According to Mars Finance, on July 5th, Leto Bao, the protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million yuan" story, concluded his review of his US stock investment experience on Binance Square. Some of his remarks are as follows: Around August of last year, his investment style shifted to value investing, with his main holdings allocated to indices, especially the Nasdaq 100, and a portion invested in companies he actively selected, such as Google. At that time, wanting to build a database and backtest his investment strategy using quantitative methods, he purchased two hard drives on Pinduoduo, subsequently discovering that hard drive prices were continuously rising. He stated that the rising hard drive prices became the first signal that drew his attention to the storage sector. At that time, reports already mentioned that AI was driving up memory prices, and hard drive prices were rising in tandem. The second signal came from his experience as a Data Engineer; ByteDance was also requiring its teams to shorten data lifecycles, i.e., reduce data storage time, for example, from two or three years to one year or six months, and delete redundant data, due to insufficient storage resources. Leto Bao stated that based on the rising hard drive prices, AI storage needs, and research report analysis, he initially bought some related stocks, but did not immediately invest heavily, because he had not yet seen concrete evidence at the time. He then discovered through 13F institutional holdings that institutions had been increasing their positions in related sectors for three consecutive quarters before he began to increase his own positions and has held them ever since. He stated that he currently still holds positions related to storage and has already achieved significant returns. Leto Bao noted that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is also one of the key indicators closely watched by the Federal Reserve. A high CPI usually indicates significant inflationary pressure; a low CPI may reflect deflationary pressure. The Fed's long-term goal is to maintain inflation at around 2%, which represents a moderate inflationary environment, implying slow currency depreciation, while investment, consumption, and credit activities are relatively healthy. Non-farm payroll data also influences market judgment. There is a certain correlation between overheated employment and inflation, but the relationship between macroeconomic indicators is complex and not a simple linear deduction. The Federal Reserve is responsible for formulating economic policies related to interest rates and serving the operation of the US economy through policy adjustments. Leto Bao believes that CPI, non-farm payrolls, Fed policies, and earnings season should not be simply regarded as "noise" but all have certain reference value. He mentioned that he had previously ignored the interest rate hike environment when investing in Nvidia, leading to a significant drawdown in his account. Therefore, macroeconomic factors still need to be considered in investment decisions. Finally, Leto Bao advised that investments should begin as early as possible, and funds should be allocated to relevant assets as soon as possible. Many jobs and positions will be affected by AI in the future, so ordinary people who want to hedge against the risk of being replaced by AI can consider investing in AI-related companies. Leto Bao is a former employee of ByteDance, known as the "ByteDance Stock Investor." He reportedly made a substantial profit by investing in the AI storage sector in the US stock market, earning approximately 30 million RMB before resigning. The story began when he noticed an abnormal price increase when buying hard drives on Pinduoduo, which led him to research data storage needs and heavily invest in related stocks.

Ledger CTO urges AI bug hunter responsibility, warns against ‘attention farming’

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The protagonist of the "ByteDance stock trading 30 million" story recounts his experience: He discovered an opportunity in the AI storage sector due to rising hard drive prices and recommends investing in AI companies to hedge against the risk of being replaced by AI.