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Analysis: Strategy sold off its first large-scale BTC transaction in five years, but the market did not show excessive panic.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth approximately $216 million, marking the company's largest Bitcoin sale in history. However, the market did not experience a significant drop, with the BTC price remaining around $63,000. This is Strategy's first large-scale net sale since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: 1,363 BTC were sold between June 29th and 30th at an average price of approximately $59,256, generating $80.8 million; 2,225 BTC were sold between July 1st and 5th at an average price of approximately $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total of approximately $216 million. This sale is primarily intended to pay preferred stock obligations and replenish dollar reserves, and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. The company currently holds approximately 843,775 BTC and approximately $2.55 billion in dollar reserves. This sale represents only about 0.4% of its holdings, indicating more liquidity management than a signal of divestment. From the derivatives market perspective, the news of Strategy's sale led to a significant cooling of sentiment in the Bitcoin futures market. The composite market index fell from the bullish zone of around 80 on July 6th to 32.6, entering the bearish zone, and at one point approached 20, indicating that leveraged funds began to shift towards a defensive stance. However, the Bitcoin price reacted only moderately, currently remaining above its 30-day fair value. The market tends to view this sale as a passive liquidity operation rather than a systematic exit from Bitcoin by Strategy. The market is currently in a "neutral to cautious" state, with relatively stable price performance, but derivatives positions have clearly weakened. If the overall market index rises back above 55, it may indicate a recovery in market risk appetite; if it remains below 45 for an extended period, it could further drag BTC down below its fair value.
Theorem proofs are also starting to come down to cost: Mistral open-sourced Leanstral 1.5, costing about $4 per problem.
According to Beating's monitoring, Mistral AI has open-sourced Leanstral 1.5, a model for Lean 4 formal proofs. The model has a total of 119 billion parameters, with approximately 6.5 billion activation parameters. It is licensed under the Apache 2.0 license and offers a free API. Official evaluations show that Leanstral 1.5 solved 587 out of 672 problems on PutnamBench; it achieved 87% and 34% on the abstract algebra benchmarks FATE-H and FATE-X respectively, setting new best performance records for similar models. The average solution cost of Leanstral 1.5 on PutnamBench is approximately $4, lower than the tens to hundreds of dollars cost of some previous systems. As the token budget per problem increases, the number of problems it solves continues to increase; in the AVL tree complexity proof, the model completed the proof after more than 2.7 million token inferences and 22 instances of context compression. In addition to mathematical proofs, Leanstral 1.5 was also used for code verification. The team discovered 11 real bugs in 57 open-source Rust repositories, 5 of which had not been previously reported.
Opinion: Strategy's structural problems are not yet fully resolved; it should explore generating returns using its Bitcoin holdings.
According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, wrote that Strategy's capital management adjustments announced on Monday marked a significant turning point. In the preceding weeks, Strategy's preferred stock "digital credit" system had been under pressure, with STRC preferred stock falling below its $100 par value and hitting a record low of $71.25 on June 26th. The market began to question how the company would pay its increasing preferred stock dividends. Strategy subsequently announced a new digital credit capital framework, including a board-approved dollar reserve policy, a revised STRC dividend policy, a $1 billion preferred securities buyback authorization, a $1 billion MSTR common stock buyback authorization, and a BTC monetization plan. Simultaneously, the board increased the annualized STRC dividend yield from 11.5% to 12%, applicable to the semi-monthly dividend due on or after July 1st. Following the announcement, MSTR rose 12.6% to approximately $92.70 on Monday, while STRC rose 12.2% to approximately $83.70. Thorn believes that Strategy's approach is sensible, but may not permanently solve its structural problems. The company still has a large preferred stock portfolio and ongoing payment obligations, and faces $6.7 billion in convertible bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028. The market's real concern is not Strategy's lack of assets, but whether it has sufficient dollar liquidity to pay dividends without harming BTC holders, MSTR common shareholders, or preferred shareholders. By raising over $1 billion in cash through the sale of common stock, setting a 12-month minimum cash reserve policy, and increasing its current cash coverage ratio to approximately 17 months, Strategy has bought itself time. The most controversial aspect is the BTC monetization plan, the wording of which seems to explicitly indicate that Strategy may sell BTC from time to time. He doesn't want to see Strategy sell Bitcoin because the company's identity and the MSTR premium are built on its narrative as a long-term BTC exposure tool, and selling BTC would weaken that story. However, he also believes that selling a small amount of BTC can be justified if it prevents a disorderly spiral in capital structure, protects preferred stock, and allows for waiting for better market conditions. Strategy should explore how to generate returns from its BTC holdings without having to sell physical BTC directly. This could include lending out a small amount of segregated BTC on conservative terms or using options strategies to capture volatility gains.
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