Bernstein Predicts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035—10X Its Original Forecast
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Bernstein: The storage bull market could continue into 2027, but the steepest part of the rise has passed.
According to Mars Finance, on July 8th, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein released its monthly global memory tracking report, stating that DRAM contract prices continued to rise month-on-month in June, implying that the average price of traditional DRAM in Q2 2026 will increase by approximately 74% compared to Q1. Demand from servers and mobile devices remains the main driver, with Server DRAM prices expected to rise by approximately 60% to 67% in Q2, and Mobile DRAM by nearly 80%. The spot market also shows tight supply. PC DRAM spot prices rose 5.6% to 11.5% month-on-month in June, while Server DRAM rose 6.1% to 26.4%. The report stated that Server DDR5 performed particularly strongly, with spot prices significantly higher than contract prices, indicating that demand from AI and cloud service providers is still absorbing the new capacity shifted by suppliers to the server market. However, Bernstein also cautioned that the rate of price increases will slow significantly in Q3. TrendForce predicts that traditional DRAM price increases will slow to 13% to 18% in the third quarter, down from the steep increases in the second quarter. PC, mobile phone, and consumer electronics customers are reducing configurations or adjusting purchasing paces; while demand disruption is not yet fully apparent, the report believes it will eventually occur. The situation for NAND is more divergent. In June, NAND wafer spot prices actually fell by 3% to 4%, while wafer contract prices rose only slightly by 0.3% to 3.7%. However, strong price increases in mobile NAND and SSDs will still drive overall NAND contract prices up by about 60% in the second quarter. Bernstein stated that SSD and mobile storage price increases could reach 70% to 80%, offsetting the weakness on the wafer side. The key variable in this storage cycle remains AI. Cloud service providers and server customers continue to prioritize securing supply; some US CSPs have completed long-term agreement negotiations, while Chinese CSPs are still negotiating. Long-term agreements help smooth future price declines but may also limit the room for some suppliers to continue raising prices. In its investment conclusions, Bernstein maintains positive ratings for Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk, while remaining cautious on Kioxia. The report believes that storage prices may remain strong until 2027, but will gradually normalize from the second half of 2027 to 2028 as long-term agreements take effect and new capacity comes online.
The market ignored Samsung's impressive earnings forecast, and Samsung Electronics opened down 3%.
According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, based on Bitget market data, the South Korean KOSPI index opened down 96.78 points, or 1.2%, at 7954.55 points on Tuesday, July 7th. Samsung Electronics fell 3%, and SK Hynix fell 1%. Previously, Samsung released its Q2 earnings forecast, showing that its operating profit increased by over 1800% year-on-year, with single-quarter profit exceeding the total of the previous three years. At the same time, the company's revenue also increased by 129% year-on-year, reaching 171 trillion won.
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