Reuters opinion: If the US launches a ground offensive, Iran could cause widespread damage to the Gulf region's energy infrastructure.

According to Mars Finance, on March 30th, Reuters commodities and energy columnist Clyde Russell published an article stating that a month after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, the global crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas supply markets are now in a "second-worst-case scenario." The article also predicted the worst-case scenario for this conflict: a sharp escalation where Iran uses missiles and drones to cause widespread damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including pipelines, refineries, processing facilities, and export terminals. The most likely trigger for such an action would be a US ground force attempting to seize and control Iranian-held territory, such as the Kharg Island oil terminal and some small islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Deploying ground troops is reportedly an option being considered by US President Trump, and US military forces are steadily building up in the region. However, even if a military invasion is tactically successful, it would be pointless if it leads to large-scale damage to energy infrastructure, as it would push an already severe market crisis into an unprecedented global energy catastrophe. Looking at Brent crude oil futures, the market is currently largely betting that the situation will de-escalate and eventually restore normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 2.7% in early Asian trading on Monday to around $115.55 a barrel, up from $112.57 at the close on March 27. Since closing at $72.48 a barrel on February 27 (the day before the US-Israeli attack on Iran), Brent prices have risen by 59%.