Powell appears tonight: Middle East tensions coupled with inflationary pressures put expectations for interest rate cuts to the test again.

According to Mars Finance, on March 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will attend a public event and answer questions at 22:30 Beijing time. Against the backdrop of continued tensions in the Middle East and increased market volatility, this speech is considered one of the most closely watched macroeconomic events this week. The market widely expects Powell to maintain a cautious stance and avoid giving a clear signal on the path of interest rate cuts. With inflation still above the 2% target, coupled with increased uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term has increased, and the expectation of "no rate cut" continues to strengthen. Meanwhile, the tense relationship between US President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve continues. If Powell releases hawkish or wait-and-see signals, the market expects Trump to exert pressure again, intensifying the policy game. On the fundamental side, the US job market is showing signs of weakening, with a sharp decline in new jobs in February, putting pressure on the economic outlook and putting the Fed in a dilemma of "high inflation + slowing growth." Analysts point out that before the situation in the Middle East becomes clearer, monetary policy will likely remain cautious, and market trends will continue to depend heavily on geopolitical developments and changes in the inflation path.