Trump will deliver a national address at 9:00 AM this morning: the war with Iran has "reached or exceeded the baseline," and the two-to-three-week timeline will be reconfirmed.

According to Mars Finance, on April 2nd, the White House announced that President Trump would address the nation at 9 PM Eastern Time on April 1st (9 AM Beijing Time on April 2nd) to provide a "significant update" on the military operation against Iran (Operation Epic Fury). White House officials had previously indicated that the US military operation had "met or exceeded benchmarks" and would reiterate the timeline for ending the operation within two to three weeks. The market reacted positively to the speech: stock indices rebounded and oil prices fell, with mainstream narratives viewing the speech as a significant signal that risks had materialized. However, the White House also emphasized that allies needed to contribute more "effort and money," shifting its tone from "the US can handle it" to urging allies to take responsibility, leading to speculation that this might be a warm-up for foreign negotiations rather than a simple declaration of the final outcome. Trump recently criticized some NATO allies for not participating in the operation and hinted that the US might reassess its role in NATO. While mainstream opinion views the speech as an anchor to alleviate uncertainty, the market's real concern is a verifiable, enforceable, and sustainable exit strategy. Political narratives can be updated minute by minute, while real-world security, shipping recovery, supply chains, and damage assessments require weekly or even monthly verification. If the speech continues to emphasize the "progress bar," a situation may arise in the short term where risk assets are revalued due to "improved tone," while commodities and inflation are priced in due to "persistent supply disruptions," leading to repeated fluctuations in asset correlations in the short term. Investors need to be wary of the chain reaction caused by expectation gaps. The speech is expected to focus on the strategic goals already achieved by the US military (such as weakening the Iranian navy, curbing regional proxy threats, and ensuring Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons), while also potentially addressing key issues such as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. All major US television networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, CNN, etc.) will broadcast it live, and the White House website and YouTube channel will also provide live streaming. This speech is Trump's first formal national address on the war with Iran, and its duration is expected to be 30-60 minutes. Its content will directly influence the market's judgment on the path to the end of the conflict.