Bitunix analysts: Energy and industrial metal supply chains are both damaged, the war has escalated to the "physical production system," and the market has entered a phase of inflation and risk mismatch.

According to Mars Finance, on April 2nd, the core market contradiction further expanded from "energy supply uncertainty" to "damage to industrial capacity." The attack on EGA, the Middle East's largest aluminum company, led to a complete shutdown of its smelter. Coupled with production cuts by several other aluminum smelters in the region, this means that the war is no longer just affecting energy and shipping, but is directly disrupting the industrial metal supply chain, transmitting inflationary pressures from oil prices to the manufacturing sector. This resonates with OPEC production cuts and the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the global supply contraction to escalate from a single category to a double squeeze of "energy + industrial raw materials." Inflation expectations are rising again, and Federal Reserve officials have clearly stated that the energy shock will comprehensively push up prices, forcing them to maintain restrictive policies. Meanwhile, Trump released a clear timeframe for escalating military strikes in the next two to three weeks, but provided no path for opening the Strait or de-escalating the conflict. This caused oil prices to rise rapidly, bond yields to rebound, while gold saw a sell-off, indicating that the market has not entered a typical risk-averse mode, but rather shifted to "liquidity repricing"—funds withdrawing from non-yielding assets and moving to cash and assets with pricing power. The potential imposition of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals by the US, coupled with the simultaneous advancement of policies across multiple fronts including technology, military, and resources, is further fragmenting global trade and supply chains, leading to a multi-point spread of risks. The geopolitical structure remains highly unstable. Iran has not shown a substantive willingness to negotiate, instead continuing to strengthen regional strikes and strategic deterrence; this means the conflict is evolving from bilateral confrontation to multi-party involvement, increasing the risk of protracted conflict and loss of control. Against this backdrop, market behavior exhibits typical characteristics of "short-termism and defensiveness." While US employment and manufacturing data appear stable, price indicators are rising simultaneously, suggesting that the economy, though not yet weakening, is already under cost pressure, leading funds to reduce duration and risk exposure. BTC continues to act as a result of risk absorption, with liquidity accumulating in the 69000-70100 range but not being effectively digested, and the price pressured at 68000, reflecting insufficient willingness to absorb funds. The 65500 level is a key testing zone under the current structure; if energy or conflict escalates again, this zone could trigger a chain reaction of liquidity releases. Overall, the market has entered a new phase dominated by "supply chain disruption": energy, metals, and geopolitics are all at play, driving up inflation expectations without providing growth support, creating a typical risk-price mismatch. In the absence of policy anchors and war as an outlet, asset prices will continue to be driven by liquidity and risk appetite.