Analysis: Crypto spot trading volume has declined significantly, making a broad-based rally highly unlikely.
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Analysis: Bitcoin rebounded, but spot trading volume shrank rapidly, and the risk of a squeeze on long positions in derivatives is accumulating.
According to BlockBeats, on July 6th, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, spot trading volume declined rapidly. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is unlikely to form a trend reversal and is often just a sentiment-driven correction; the sustainability of the rebound needs to be monitored. On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating a weakening of exit intentions and a recovery in trading intentions. While major stablecoins on trading platforms are still experiencing net outflows, the outflow rate continues to narrow, and the marginal improvement in funding pressure supports the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening of spot driving force means a relative increase in the weight of derivatives. The 7-day average of the perpetual contract long premium has continued to rise to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying continues to push perpetual prices above spot prices; although open interest has decreased, it is still significantly higher than the level in February of this year. The current long premium is still within the normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeeze will continue to accumulate. Once the open interest rebounds again, the fierce battle between long and short positions will make the volatility come faster and more rapidly. This is a hidden danger that needs to be paid attention to in advance.
Cryptocurrency stocks fell in pre-market trading; STRATEGY down 4.1%.
According to data from Odaily Odaily, cryptocurrency stocks fell in pre-market trading, following Bitcoin's more than 2% decline. COINBASE GLOBAL fell 3.5%, BIT DIGITAL declined 3.6%, and STRATEGY fell 4.1%. RIOT PLATFORMS fell 4.4%, HUT 8 CORP fell 4.9%, and MARA HOLDINGS fell 3.5%.
The U.S. SEC released a statement on its 2026 regulatory agenda: promoting the trading of tokenized securities and advancing the development of crypto rules.
According to Odaily Odaily, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins released a statement regarding the 2026 regulatory agenda, indicating that the SEC will continue to advance a series of regulatory reforms, including adapting the regulatory framework to the current market environment, actively embracing innovation and new technologies, implementing President Trump's goal of "making America the global crypto capital," promoting the launch of more crypto-related products in the U.S. market, establishing clear rules for crypto asset financing, and clarifying the on-chain custody of market participants and promoting on-chain tokenized securities trading. Regarding capital market reforms, the U.S. SEC will advance its "Make IPOs Great Again" initiative, which aims to encourage more companies to enter the public market by reforming information disclosure systems and reducing compliance costs for companies seeking to go public, while maintaining necessary investor protection measures.
Analysis: Demand in the US market remains weak, making it difficult for Bitcoin's July rally to continue.
According to Mars Finance, on July 7th, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's July rally remains fragile. One of the most closely watched indicators, the Coinbase Premium Index, has been negative for 50 consecutive days. This indicator measures the price difference of BTC on the US trading platforms Coinbase and Binance. The continued underperformance of BTC on Coinbase compared to Binance indicates relatively weak demand in the US market. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, whereas historically, Bitcoin bull runs have typically been accompanied by a consistently positive Coinbase Premium Index. Japanese bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK, and Germany. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, it could pose resistance to BTC. Bitfinex analysts stated that structural institutional buying remains unverified until BlackRock's IBIT resumes its sustained inflows. Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated that if the spot Bitcoin ETF continues its trend following last Friday's return to inflows, the short-term outlook remains constructive. The agency added that if BTC clearly reclaims $64,000 this week, it will further boost market sentiment and alleviate market concerns about Strategy (MSTR), a publicly traded Bitcoin holding company.
Binance will delist five spot trading pairs, including GMX/USDC, on July 10.
PANews reported on July 7th that Binance announced it will delist five spot trading pairs—GMX/USDC, PARTI/FDUSD, RUNE/BTC, SEI/BTC, and T/USDC—on July 10th at 11:00 AM (UTC+8). Binance stated that this move is based on its regular assessment of factors such as liquidity and trading volume of spot trading pairs. Only the relevant trading pairs will be delisted; the related tokens can still be traded through other trading pairs in the Binance spot zone. The platform will also simultaneously terminate spot grid trading and other trading bot services for the aforementioned trading pairs. Users are advised to adjust or disable their relevant strategies in advance to avoid potential losses.
Midday Review: Shanghai Composite Index falls over 1%, dropping below 4000 points; Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shrinks by over 570 billion yuan in the first half of the day.
According to Mars Finance, the market fluctuated and adjusted in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4,000-point mark. The divergence between the yellow and white lines was obvious, with small and mid-cap stocks generally declining, and the micro-cap index falling by more than 3%. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in the first half of the day was 1.63 trillion yuan, a decrease of 575.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Market hotspots were scattered, with over 4,700 stocks declining across the market. In terms of sectors, the semiconductor industry chain bucked the trend and strengthened, with semiconductor silicon wafer concepts performing actively, and Yanyou Silicon hitting the 20cm daily limit. The computing power chip concept fluctuated and rose, with Muxi Shares rising over 15%, and Wantong Development achieving two consecutive daily limits. The advanced packaging concept fluctuated and rebounded, with Dagang Shares and Huatian Technology hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the innovative drug concept fluctuated and declined, with Hainan Haiyao hitting the daily limit down. The non-ferrous metals sector weakened, with Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit down, and Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Baiyin, and many other stocks falling sharply. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.78%. (Cailian Press)