Bitunix analysts: The ceasefire eases the supply shock but does not change structural pressures; policy divergences widen, and the market enters a phase dominated by "uncertainty premiums."

According to Mars Finance, on April 8th, the market experienced a dramatic shift in a short period, from "full-scale escalation of risks" to a "two-week ceasefire window." On the surface, Iran's acceptance of a ceasefire and the expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz suggest a marginal easing of the extreme impact on energy supply. However, from the decision-making process, this shift was not based on the end of the conflict, but rather a temporary concession under political pressure, the need for financial market stability, and negotiation, meaning that supply risks have only been postponed, not eliminated. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to emphasize the risks of rising inflation and weakening employment, indicating that the policy environment remains in a state of "passively responding to supply shocks." From the perspective of policy and international reactions, structural divergences are widening. On the one hand, Federal Reserve officials have reached a consensus that the energy shock will push up inflation, keeping the logic of maintaining high interest rates unshaken; on the other hand, Japanese wages have reached multi-decade highs, strengthening expectations of interest rate hikes, meaning that major global economies are simultaneously tightening liquidity. This "uncoordinated tightening," coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, makes it impossible for the market to form a stable anchor for interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the attack on Russian energy facilities and Iran's continued bargaining power to close the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the energy supply chain remains highly fragile, and any event could trigger a renewed price surge.