Analysts predict that without a deal between the US and Iran, Bitcoin may fall back to $65,000.

On April 12, according to Forbes, after 21 hours of negotiations, US Vice President Vance stated that no agreement had been reached, with Iran refusing to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump had previously warned that if negotiations failed, he would carry out "total destruction" against Iran. The Iranian conflict has already shaken the cryptocurrency market for weeks, and coupled with the impact of tariffs, Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000 earlier this month. Before the negotiations began, cryptocurrency analysts stated that if an agreement was reached, Bitcoin could rise to $80,000; if negotiations broke down, it could fall back to $65,000. Bulls argue that on-chain wallet data shows the largest Bitcoin whale consistently bought, rather than sold, during periods of heightened geopolitical turmoil. Their logic is that if the conflict escalates further, disrupting Persian Gulf oil supplies, oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Federal Reserve will postpone interest rate cuts. In this context, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to perform well. On the bearish side, gold trader and long-time Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff states that as the conflict intensifies, investors will flee Bitcoin and turn to gold. Schiff predicts a Bitcoin "crash," stating that gold is the only true safe-haven asset during wartime, and further suggests that administration insiders may be profiting from news fluctuations surrounding the conflict. If Trump delivers on his threat of "total destruction," the stock and crypto markets will almost certainly experience a synchronized sell-off. Regarding subsequent developments, Vance maintained a firm stance at the press conference but did not rule out the possibility of continued negotiations. The Iranian parliament speaker demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the lifting of asset freezes before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the key in the next 72 hours lies in two questions: whether the ceasefire agreement can be maintained, and whether Trump will escalate the conflict. Currently, whale wallets are still buying at current prices, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on a stabilizing situation.