Analysis: Bitcoin rose along with US stocks, but the options market still bets on downside risk.

Bitcoin rose to approximately $74,935 during Odaily trading hours, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending different signals. QCP Capital points out that this rally is primarily driven by the spot market, rather than a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite. Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that short sellers are still increasing their hedging positions rather than being forced to liquidate. The options market is also cautious: short-term implied volatility is low, the one-month maturity is less than three months, and risk reversal indicators show that market demand for downside protection is higher than upside bets, suggesting that traders are more willing to pay for potential declines rather than chase rallies. QCP believes this is more like a "bounce" than a trend reversal. From a macro perspective, neither the long-term US Treasury yield nor the gold price movement has confirmed a rebound in risk appetite, with gold remaining near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand persists. Analysts point out that the current market movement is more of a "sentiment recovery" driven by ceasefire expectations than a resolution of core risks. Furthermore, Ethereum performed relatively strongly, with the ETH/BTC ratio rebounding to approximately 0.0315. This, coupled with record highs in on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply, indicates a potential rotation of funds towards high-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this upward trend. (CoinDesk)