Analysts: Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their lowest level since 2023, potentially indicating a bottom has formed.

According to Mars Finance, on April 16th, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their most negative level since 2023, and historically, such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%. The funding rate is the periodic fee paid between long and short positions in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. A positive rate means longs are paying shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; a negative rate means shorts are paying longs, indicating a short market. Despite negative funding rates from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated between $60,000 and $65,000, rising to approximately $75,000. Historically, negative funding rates have often coincided with Bitcoin's cyclical bottoms: In March 2020, during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin fell to approximately $3,000; in 2021, it fell to $30,000 during China's mining ban; in November 2022, it bottomed out at around $15,000 during the FTX crash; and in 2023, it briefly dipped below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Negative funding rates also coincided with cyclical lows during the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025. A persistently negative funding rate indicates that even with positive price movements, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing through a "wall of worry," and large short positions could fuel further price increases.