Bitunix analysts: Ceasefire expectations are depressing safe-haven premiums, but the simultaneous expansion of sanctions and shipping restrictions has led the market into a mismatch phase of "superficial easing, internal contraction."

According to Mars Finance, on April 17th, the market began to reprice "the form of war" rather than "whether war exists." The shift from a comprehensive agreement to a temporary framework between the US and Iran, along with increased ceasefire signals, superficially reduced the tail risk of extreme supply disruptions, directly triggering a decline in demand for the safe-haven dollar and a rebound in risk assets. However, simultaneously, the US expanded its shipping and energy-related blockade against Iran, including restrictions on crude oil, refined oil products, and industrial metals. This means that the substantial supply-side constraints have not only not been lifted but have become more structural. This mismatch between "expected easing vs. real contraction" is distorting market pricing. The energy market has not seen substantial easing, but the dollar has weakened due to improved risk appetite, creating a typical asset misalignment: safe-haven assets have already priced in an optimistic scenario, while commodities are still priced in supply constraints. This is why Wall Street has begun to unanimously turn bearish on the dollar; the essence is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a rebalancing behavior of funds flowing back from wartime allocations to risk assets. Deeper changes stem from policy levels and capital structures. The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see or even tight stance, while the market's pricing in rate cuts throughout the year is extremely compressed, indicating that interest rate expectations have not truly shifted towards easing. Meanwhile, warnings from the former Treasury Secretary regarding the risks to US Treasury demand, coupled with persistently high long-term interest rates, suggest that global capital's confidence in "risk-free assets" is marginally weakening. This will further weaken the structural support for the US dollar, making it more susceptible to fluctuations in risk sentiment. Returning to the crypto market, BTC is currently in a typical liquidity redistribution phase. The price has repeatedly tested the supply zone above 75,000 without effectively holding, corresponding to persistent high-density liquidation and trapped pressure around 76,000; however, a clear liquidity support has formed in the 72,000 to 73,000 range, indicating that funds have not withdrawn but rather shifted to high-frequency reallocation within this range. From the distribution of liquidation activity, the market is building a new consolidation zone, rather than a one-sided trend extension. Overall, the market has transitioned from "event-driven" to "structural mismatch-driven." Short-term price volatility will depend more on how funds are redistributed among safe-haven assets, energy commodities, and risk assets, rather than on any single macroeconomic event. The real key now is not whether the conflict has ended, but when supply constraints and liquidity conditions will realign.