TX DeepThink: The macroeconomic logic of the crypto market has shifted from "inflationary shock" to "geopolitical easing," and Bitcoin has entered a phase of dual pricing based on liquidity and risk appetite.

According to Mars Finance, on April 20th, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core macroeconomic variable in the crypto market is rapidly shifting from "inflationary shocks" to "deflationary expectation corrections brought about by geopolitical easing." With Israel and Lebanon reaching a short-term ceasefire agreement, and the possibility of the US and Iran resuming negotiations this weekend, the market is beginning to repric the "de-escalation of the Middle East conflict." The direct impact of this change is a loosening of the risk premium in the energy market, with rising expectations of lower oil prices, thus weakening the previous upward inflation logic driven by energy. For macro assets, this signifies a crucial turning point: the core narrative previously supporting "inflation-hedging assets" such as gold and Bitcoin—that energy shocks drive up inflation, forcing central banks to tolerate higher price levels—is being partially reversed. If substantial progress is made in the Iranian nuclear negotiations, or even a phase-one agreement is reached (such as limiting nuclear activities, partially lifting sanctions, and releasing crude oil supply), oil prices may experience a trend of decline, thereby lowering inflation expectations in the coming months. This will directly alleviate upward pressure on the interest rate market and provide a window of opportunity for risk assets to recover. However, it's important to be wary that current "peace expectations" remain highly uncertain. The terms proposed by Trump (including nuclear material processing, opening the Strait of Hormuz, and even "free oil") have not been officially confirmed by Iran, and Gulf states and Europe generally believe that an agreement will take several more months. This means that the current market is more focused on trading "optimistic expectations" than on actual fundamental changes. If negotiations falter or conflicts escalate again, energy prices and inflation expectations will rebound rapidly, leading to secondary volatility. Within this framework, the short-term pricing logic of the crypto market will become more complex. On the one hand, expectations of declining inflation are conducive to lowering interest rates and improving the liquidity environment, supporting BTC; on the other hand, if inflation expectations decline rapidly, it will also weaken Bitcoin's marginal appeal as an "inflation hedge." This means that BTC is more likely to enter a phase of "internal switching of macroeconomic hedging attributes," shifting from a single inflation hedge logic to a dual pricing driven by both liquidity and risk appetite. From a trading strategy perspective, it is not advisable to heavily bet on a single macroeconomic direction at present. A better solution is to maintain a core BTC position while focusing on event-driven volatility opportunities. If the situation in the Middle East continues to ease, oil prices fall, and interest rates decline, it may be worth considering participating in a rebound in risk assets. Conversely, if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, caution should be exercised regarding a rapid market pullback triggered by a rebound in energy and inflation expectations. Overall, the crypto market is in a critical transitional period where "geopolitical variables dominate short-term fluctuations, while macroeconomic liquidity determines the medium-term trend." Note: This article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.