Galaxy analysts warn that the Clarity Act faces multiple hurdles, with a roughly 50% chance of passing before the midterm elections.

According to Mars Finance, on April 21, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, warned that the crucial U.S. cryptocurrency bill, the CLARITY Act, has reached a critical juncture. If the review is delayed until after mid-May, the likelihood of its passage in 2026 will drop sharply. Currently, the probability of the bill becoming law this year is estimated at around 50%, or even lower. Polymarket data also shows that its passage probability has fallen from 82% in February to 47%. Thorn pointed out that the Senate schedule is currently packed with issues such as military authorization for Iran, funding for the Department of Homeland Security, and the presidential nomination, leaving little time for the bill. If the Democrats regain control of the House after the November midterm elections, legislative work may stall. Although the bill passed the House last July with a bipartisan majority of 294-134, negotiations in the Senate are more complex, facing several major obstacles. First, disagreements over stablecoin rewards are the main reason for the delay in review since January. Second, the clause in the draft bill that explicitly excludes non-custodial software developers from the definition of "money transmitters" has been opposed by law enforcement agencies. Furthermore, regarding ethical provisions, some Democrats are pushing to restrict senior government officials and their families from profiting from crypto assets during their terms of office. Finally, concerns about the SEC's authority and vacant commission seats also add to the political complexity. Thorn believes that a full Senate vote in July is "theoretically possible," but would require extraordinary political will and coordination.