Bitunix Analyst: Global central banks have begun to simultaneously stop forecasting, and the market has officially entered a stagflation pricing phase.

According to BlockBeats, on May 1st, the real shift in the market wasn't about which central bank raised or lowered interest rates, but rather that major central banks worldwide simultaneously entered a "wait-and-see" mode. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all held their rates steady, but unlike in the past, none of them dared to give a clear direction for the future. The reason is quite straightforward—with energy prices spiraling out of control again, inflation and the economy are moving in opposite directions simultaneously. The US first-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was only 2%, lower than expected, but the March PCE annual growth rate rose to 3.5%, the highest in nearly three years; Eurozone GDP almost stagnated, but inflation also rebounded to 3%; the Bank of England even began to hint that it might need to raise interest rates again in the future. This indicates that the global economy is gradually entering its most troublesome state: growth is slowing, but inflation is rising again due to energy issues. More importantly, the market is now beginning to realize that Middle East risks may not truly be resolved in the short term. While US officials claim "hostile actions have ended," Trump has simultaneously indicated a possible breach of the ceasefire agreement, and Israel has warned of potential renewed action against Iran. The actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and military pressure remain in place. This suggests that the current ceasefire is more of a temporary postponement of the conflict than a genuine elimination of risk. Therefore, global central banks are now facing the same dilemma: maintaining high interest rates will further cool the economy; however, cutting rates too early could lead to high oil prices and supply chain pressures causing inflation to spiral out of control again. This is why, while AI and large-cap tech stocks have recently driven the US stock market higher, with Alphabet even surging 10% in a single day, the bond market is beginning to re-trade on something else—high interest rates may persist longer than initially expected. The recent rise in US Treasury yields essentially reflects the market's repricing of "stagflation risk." For the crypto market, BTC currently benefits from risk appetite and institutional inflows, but if global markets shift from a "soft landing" to "stagflation trading," the subsequent volatility of overvalued assets could be significantly amplified. Especially when the market begins to doubt whether the Federal Reserve has lost its room for interest rate cuts and its clear direction, liquidity expectations will once again become the biggest source of pressure on risk assets.