Newfire Research Institute: Bitcoin stabilizes above the 80,000 mark; market analysis has officially shifted from "high cost-performance ratio" to "cost-performance ratio" range.

According to Foresight News , Newfire Research Institute released its market analysis, stating that Bitcoin effectively stabilized above the key level of $77,000 in early May and broke through to above $80,000, reaching a three-month high. This trend validates Newfire Research Institute's consistent warnings about a "high-value range" since February of this year. Based on this, Newfire Research Institute officially upgraded Bitcoin's market status from "high-value range" to "value range," signifying that the market has shifted from "oversold correction" to "trend confirmation." The aftershocks of geopolitical tensions have failed to halt the release of institutional dividends. Despite frequent geopolitical conflicts at the macro level, including the controversy surrounding Iran's missile attack on a ship and potential Israeli strikes, the crypto market is gradually becoming less sensitive to such disturbances. Initial jobless claims in the US in early April hit a new low since 2022 (189,000), reflecting a robust economic fundamental. While the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged by the end of the year is 50%, policy breakthroughs are more significant in the long term: the Clarity Act reached a compromise on stablecoin yield distribution, allowing companies to provide rewards but prohibiting interest accrual on idle balances; simplified SEC disclosure requirements, coupled with the NYSE's proactive applications for tokenized securities trading, together construct a compliance firewall. Institutional competition has entered a more complex phase, and the market structure is being reshaped. Industry data indicators show that current market sentiment is not yet overheated, and institutions are building defensive positions through "structural accumulation." Newfire Research Institute judges that the Fear & Greed Index is currently stable in the neutral range, and the negative premium rate of perpetual contracts indicates that the market has not yet entered an overheated phase. Although Strategy raised $11.68 billion and faces interest repayment pressure, its mNav indicator remains robustly at 1.0; the Canadian sovereign wealth fund's first disclosure of its holdings in Strategy shares further signals strong institutional entry. With RWA's market capitalization exceeding $19.3 billion, stablecoins and tokenized government bonds have essentially evolved into the underlying infrastructure of the global financial system. Newfire Group believes that as long as the market can stabilize above the daily MA200, the "cost-effective market" driven by RWA and compliant stablecoins will continue to deepen.