Analysis: After failing to break through the 200-day moving average, Bitcoin fell back below $81,000, and historical price action has raised market concerns.

According to Mars Finance, Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA, approximately $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to break through effectively, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the overall crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk smart contract platform index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as an important indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it will further reinforce the market narrative that "the bear market ended and a new bull market began when it fell below $63,000 in February this year." However, a similar situation occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 in June of the same year. Therefore, some analysts warn of the risk of a "false breakout." Marex, an analysis firm, stated that whether BTC can continue its upward trend depends on three factors: whether spot funds continue to chase the price higher, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If all three factors align, Bitcoin may quickly open up space towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, pointed out that this pullback is more like a brief pause in the upward trend than the end of the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar situations in the past have been accompanied by significant pullbacks. Furthermore, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen from a high of 4.46% at the beginning of the month to 4.32%, which is considered a potential positive factor for risk assets.