Analysis suggests that Bitcoin's surge and subsequent fall below $80,000 was driven by a combination of ETF outflows and geopolitical risks, which weighed on market sentiment.

According to Mars Finance, Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark this week, ending a five-day streak of net inflows into spot ETFs, indicating a cooling of the market's rebound momentum from its February lows. US non-farm payrolls for April increased by 115,000, higher than the expected 62,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. While the data was generally strong, it did not significantly alleviate market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty, instead reinforcing expectations that "energy-driven inflation limits the scope for interest rate cuts." In terms of fund flows, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $277 million on Thursday, ending a previous streak of $1.69 billion in inflows; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $104 million on the same day, indicating a short-term cooling of institutional risk appetite. Geopolitically, tensions between Iran and the US escalated again, causing the market to reprice the risks of the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices rebounded, partially offsetting the previous support for risk assets from falling oil prices. The derivatives market reflects a longer-term hawkish outlook, with interest rate futures pricing in a greater than 50% probability of rate hikes after 2027, potentially delaying the easing cycle until 2028. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's recent surge has been primarily driven by institutional spot buying and short covering, with retail participation remaining low, funding rates remaining moderate, and market momentum structure weak. Analysts believe that if retail funds do not return, BTC may still face the risk of retracing to the $75,000–$78,000 support zone.