Bitunix analysts: The market is beginning to repric the risk of "energy inflation," and the Federal Reserve may be forced into a longer wait-and-see period.

According to BlockBeats, on May 12th, the core market shift was no longer solely about whether the situation with Iran would escalate, but rather the energy shock beginning to trigger a chain reaction with the US inflation structure, the power transition at the Federal Reserve, and global demand for safe-haven assets. The risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, Iran has refused to abandon its uranium enrichment program, and the US continues to signal a possible resumption of military operations, keeping crude oil and gasoline prices high. Against this backdrop, the US April CPI data is seen as a key turning point, as it represents more than just a simple energy-driven inflation surge; the market is beginning to worry whether high oil prices will re-spread to housing, services, and the overall core price system. Currently, the market predicts that the US April overall CPI year-on-year growth rate may rise to 3.7%, a near three-year high, while the core CPI may also rebound to 2.7%. The most noteworthy factor is not energy itself, but rather the potential for housing inflation to rebound due to statistical revisions and renewed rent increases, further weakening the main support for the cooling of US inflation over the past two years. If housing and energy create dual pressures simultaneously, market expectations for a Fed rate cut at the end of the year will continue to be postponed, and may even begin to repric the possibility of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period. Meanwhile, the Fed's power structure is entering a sensitive phase. Warsh has overcome Senate hurdles and could officially take over as Fed Chair as early as this week, but his appointment coincides with a resurgence of energy inflation, continued pressure from the White House to cut rates, and escalating internal divisions within the Fed. The market is concerned that if oil prices remain high in the coming months, the Fed will be forced to maintain an extremely passive policy stance between "fighting inflation" and "political pressure," thus keeping dollar liquidity tight. In the crypto market, while BTC has recently maintained high-level fluctuations, the market structure has gradually shifted from "liquidity-driven" to "risk repricing." If tonight's CPI is higher than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen again, suppressing market risk appetite and potentially slowing the upward momentum of BTC. Conversely, if core inflation does not spiral out of control, it will help the market maintain expectations that liquidity may still ease within the year. The real focus of the market right now is no longer whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but whether the world is re-entering a new era of "structural high inflation" driven by energy, geopolitics, and supply chains.