Bitunix analysts: With unresolved or even worsening risks in US Treasuries, Japanese government bonds, and the Middle East, global markets are entering a "high-yield stress test."

According to BlockBeats, on May 19th, the core risk in global markets has shifted from inflation to the "repricing of the sovereign bond market." The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds officially broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year yield has climbed back above 5%. Morgan Stanley even warned directly that this has entered a dangerous zone that could trigger a significant correction in US stocks. The market is beginning to worry that if high oil prices, the risk of war, and fiscal deficits coexist, long-term US interest rates could spiral further out of control. Meanwhile, the situation in the Japanese market is also rapidly deteriorating. The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds continues to hit record highs, and the Japanese government has even begun discussing reallocating a supplementary budget to address energy and price pressures. This indicates that one of the world's largest sources of low-interest-rate funding is gradually losing stability. More importantly, Japanese officials have clearly stated that if the yen approaches 160 again, they are prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market at any time, but must avoid selling US Treasury bonds to push up US yields, showing that the global bond and foreign exchange markets have begun to mutually constrain each other. Another key theme comes from the Middle East. Trump's recent cancellation of the planned military strike against Iran has been interpreted by the market as a temporary easing of risk. However, in reality, the US and Iran are more likely entering a protracted war of attrition, a "neither war nor peace" situation. Issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, and energy sanctions remain unresolved, meaning that oil prices and shipping risks could continue to impact the market. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC has recently entered a high-leverage consolidation phase. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there is still significant short liquidity around 78,000, while a large amount of long support has accumulated around 75,500. The recent price fluctuation between 76,000 and 78,000 reflects market funds awaiting direction. If global long-term interest rates continue to rise, the volatility of risky assets could increase rapidly again.