Bitunix Analyst: Yields and geopolitical trades become market focus, global assets are entering a phase of decoupling.

According to Mars Finance, on May 20th, the market focus shifted from stagflation itself to whether risk assets could maintain their high valuations after global long-term yields spiraled out of control. The US 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.7%, and the 30-year yield broke through 5.1%, with the market beginning to reprice the risk of a potential Fed rate hike. Morgan Stanley and HSBC both warned that US Treasury yields had entered a dangerous range that could suppress stock market valuations, while yields on Japanese, British, and European long-term bonds also rose simultaneously, indicating a comprehensive revaluation of global funding costs. On the other hand, although a brief window for negotiation appeared in the Middle East, the market remained on high alert. Trump indicated a willingness to give Iran another 2-3 days for negotiations, but emphasized that if an agreement failed, the US might launch another military strike against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal operation, and NATO has even begun discussing escort plans after early July. India also plans to redeploy oil tankers into the Persian Gulf, indicating that the global energy supply chain is gradually entering a "semi-wartime state." In terms of funding, US stocks have begun to show signs of pressure. The S&P 500 has continued to decline, and long-term real interest rates have continued to rise, indicating that the market is beginning to recalculate the valuation rationality of AI and technology stocks. However, Deutsche Bank believes that oil prices have not yet spiraled out of control, economic data has not yet weakened, and the Federal Reserve has not yet officially entered a rate hike cycle. Therefore, the market is currently in a phase of "high volatility but not a complete collapse." In the crypto market, BTC is currently maintaining range-bound trading, but the liquidity structure has begun to weaken. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, there is a clear short liquidation zone above $78,000, while a large amount of long liquidity has accumulated around $75,500 to $76,000. Since the current market focus is on yields and global risk appetite, BTC is more of a short-term indicator of global liquidity trends than an independent market movement. If US Treasury yields continue to spiral out of control, risk assets may face deleveraging pressure simultaneously.