Glassnode: Bitcoin recovered to the real market average but failed to hold; on-chain metrics suggest consolidation may continue for months.

According to BlockBeats, on May 21st, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin has reclaimed the true market average of $78,300, but failed to hold above this level. Historical cycles suggest that weeks to months of consolidation may be needed before a credible bullish transition is confirmed. The 30-day moving average has achieved a profit/loss ratio that rose from 0.4 in February to 1.8 during the rally, indicating insufficient demand to absorb the wave of profit-taking. This indicator needs to remain consistently above 2 to signal a true recovery in buying power. The 30-day cost baseline at $78,200 has shifted from support to resistance, while the cost baseline of the accumulation group formed between February and April ($71,400) is currently the most immediate support level in the current pullback. The internal structure of the spot market has weakened in recent weeks, with the cumulative volume difference (CVD) remaining negative overall, and Coinbase activity continuing to lag. This indicates that while sporadic offshore speculative demand exists, institutional participation in the US spot market remains relatively weak. The continued rise in CME futures open interest along with prices suggests that institutional participation in the derivatives market is improving, given that overall spot demand remains hesitant near the current highs. The recent slowdown in the accumulation of US spot ETFs further indicates that positioning is increasingly driven by futures activity. Implicit volatility is recovering from its lows, primarily concentrated in short-term contracts, while long-term expectations remain stable. Realized volatility continues to decline, and the volatility risk premium is widening, making hedging costs relatively manageable. Options positions remain defensive. Skewness indicators show a renewed demand for downside protection, while the negative gamma range near $75,000 makes spot prices vulnerable to amplified hedging flows and increased price volatility. BlockBeats Note: The True Market Mean Price (TMMP) is an important indicator in Bitcoin on-chain analysis. It is also known as the Active-Investor Price. Essentially, it reflects the average price at which Bitcoins currently in active circulation in the market (i.e., coins that have actually been bought, sold, and transferred between investors) were purchased.