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CryptoQuant analyst: Bitcoin has entered a risk-averse phase, and ETF demand momentum is far below last year's peak.

ChainCatcher reports that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin lost its structural upward momentum amid a rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic environment, a significant signal that the market is currently more in a "risk-off" phase. Every BTC rally lacks confirmation until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero line. He points out that Part 4 of his recently released "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macroeconomic framework based on the US Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index. The core argument is that not all macroeconomic fluctuations disrupt the on-chain structure, but when macroeconomic factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even with positive on-chain data, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum. Furthermore, CryptoQuant added a US spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flows, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, demand changes over the past four weeks, and fund fund distribution. Currently, the 30-day momentum of ETFs is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a high of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025. Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing US spot demand: when this indicator remains above zero, it means that US buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its trend may lack support from real US demand.
Disclaimer: The views above are the author's only and do not represent 711BTC. Nothing here constitutes investment advice.

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