Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: US-Iran negotiations enter a critical window, non-farm payroll and unemployment data are coming.

According to Mars Finance, on May 31, regarding the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump stated that an agreement was close to being reached and demanded that Iran relinquish its nuclear weapons capabilities and open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, denied approving the final agreement text and emphasized that disagreements remained regarding the arrangements. US Defense Secretary Hergese warned that the US was prepared to resume military action against Iran if negotiations failed. If the US and Iran can further confirm a ceasefire extension or reach a phase-one agreement next week, risk assets may continue to benefit, while oil prices and safe-haven assets may face a new directional choice. On the macro front, next week the US will release key economic data including May's seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and the May unemployment rate. Simultaneously, several Federal Reserve officials will speak, and the market will further assess the balance between the US economic slowdown and inflationary pressures, as well as changes in the future interest rate path. Key events to watch are as follows: Monday, 11:00 AM, Nvidia GTC Taipei 2026 opens, with Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech. Tuesday 13:50, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, speaks; 20:30, Cleveland Fed President Hamak, a 2026 FOMC voting member, speaks on monetary policy; 22:00, US April JOLTs Job Openings; Wednesday 20:15, US May ADP Employment Change; 22:00, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Thursday 02:00, Fed releases Beige Book; 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 30; Friday 01:10, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks; 20:30, US May Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls and US May Unemployment Rate. Meanwhile, AI remains the core driver of global risk asset price increases. As the corporate earnings season draws to a close, the market will continue to focus on the performance of companies such as CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom to see if the AI investment boom can continue to spread to more industries. After US stocks ended May at record highs, the market will also face the traditional "June curse" test. In midterm election years, June is typically the worst-performing month for US stocks, and investors generally expect the market to enter a short-term consolidation period.