Bitunix Analyst: Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Are Reshaping Market Pricing; AI Frenzy and Geopolitical Risks Enter Stress Testing Phase Simultaneously

According to Mars Finance, on June 8th, the global market was simultaneously impacted by three forces: geopolitical risk, inflation risk, and capital demand. Following Iran's missile response to Israel's military action, Trump personally intervened to mediate and attempt to lead the US-Iran agreement process. However, reports surfaced that Israel still intends to strike Iranian energy facilities, meaning the energy supply risk remains unresolved. Meanwhile, the US May non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, not only overturning market expectations of an interest rate cut this year but also rapidly increasing the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year. The market is beginning to reprice a new environment of "higher interest rates for a longer period." Observing policy and capital flows, the biggest change is not the risk of economic recession, but rather the market's growing awareness of the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve. Strong employment indicates continued resilience in demand, but energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict could further transmit to inflation. Against this backdrop, the upcoming US CPI data this week will be crucial. If rising energy prices begin to be reflected in inflation data, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance or even reconsider raising interest rates will continue to increase. This is also the core reason for the recent sharp rise in US Treasury yields and the simultaneous pressure on gold and stocks; the market is reassessing the future direction of global liquidity. On the other hand, the AI industry is facing its most important stress test since the start of this bull market. Dalio's description of the current AI boom as a typical bubble isn't because AI has no value, but because the capital market is pricing in future growth far faster than actual profit realization. From Meta's proposed equity financing to expand its AI footprint, to Google's large-scale computing power collaboration with SpaceX, and the US government's consideration of direct investment in AI companies, the market is entering a new round of capital expenditure race. However, with rising interest rates, increased financing costs, and a large number of IPOs and share issuances continuously draining market liquidity, whether the capital market can continue to support such massive valuations will be a key focus in the coming quarters. For the crypto market, the real concern is no longer a single event, but whether global liquidity is entering a contraction cycle. If gold is competing with the dollar, then Bitcoin is competing with global liquidity. When the market believes the Federal Reserve will continue to provide liquidity, high-risk assets often benefit; but when the market begins to accept the possibility that high interest rates will persist for longer or even rise again, risk asset valuations face repricing pressure. The market is currently facing a triple challenge: energy inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts, the massive funding rounds for the AI industry draining liquidity, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. This week's US CPI, Chinese inflation and financial data, the European Central Bank's decision, and progress on SpaceX's IPO could all be significant catalysts influencing market risk appetite. Until a new liquidity narrative is established, market volatility is likely to remain high.