Trump's economic approval ratings have plummeted to a new low during his presidency, raising concerns among Republicans about the midterm election prospects.

According to Mars Finance, on June 8th, the latest polls show that, affected by the escalating situation in the Middle East and rising inflationary pressures, US President Trump's approval rating on economic issues has fallen to its lowest level since the start of his term, putting his long-standing "economic card" to the test. The market generally expects that, affected by the conflict with Iran and supply chain tensions, the US inflation rate may return to 4% for the first time since 2023. Although the White House has attempted to alleviate market concerns by increasing tax rebates and emphasizing energy reserves, the continued rise in oil prices has weakened the effectiveness of these policies. Trump recently stated that he would not adjust his Iran policy due to election pressure and downplayed the impact of price fluctuations, a move that has raised concerns among some Republicans. Former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney warned that if US gasoline prices remain above $4 per gallon before Labor Day, the Republican Party will face "huge trouble" in the midterm elections. Treasury Secretary Bessant believes that energy prices will fall rapidly as the situation eases. However, RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas stated that even if the conflict subsides, damaged energy infrastructure and geopolitical risk premiums could keep oil prices high, thus continuing to squeeze consumer spending. While the AI investment boom is driving manufacturing expansion and US stocks are hitting new highs, analysts point out that the US economy is exhibiting a "K-shaped recovery," with capital markets benefiting significantly, while real income for ordinary households is shrinking for the first time in nearly three years. Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that if the Republican Party fails to address the cost-of-living pressures faced by ordinary voters, it could suffer a severe blow in the November election. Analysts believe that against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and rebounding inflation, if energy prices and the cost of living cannot fall significantly in the short term, the economic pressures caused by geopolitical conflict could further evolve into political risks.