Bitunix Analyst: Against the backdrop of higher and longer interest rates, the AI capital frenzy and geopolitical tensions are simultaneously entering a validation phase.

According to Mars Finance, on June 9th, despite no economic recession and persistent inflation, demand for funds continued to expand. Iran and Israel clashed directly for the first time since April, and the Houthi rebels announced a complete ban on Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea, indicating that risks in the Middle East have not truly subsided. Although Trump pressured both sides to halt military escalation, and there were reports that the US-Iran negotiations hoped to reach an agreement by the end of June, the US interception of oil tankers bound for Iran and Israel's continued hardline stance against Hezbollah suggest that energy supply and geopolitical risk premiums will persist in the short term. Meanwhile, the market's core focus has rapidly shifted to monetary policy. Following strong non-farm payroll data, several Wall Street institutions began revising their past expectations for interest rate cuts. From Goldman Sachs canceling its forecast for a rate cut this year, to Charles Schwab believing the Fed's rate hike threshold is declining, and the bond market already reflecting future rate hike risks, funds are repricing the possibility of "long-term high interest rates" or even "limited rate hikes." The upcoming US CPI data this week will be a key watershed moment. If energy prices continue to transmit to end-user inflation, market bets on a hawkish shift in Fed policy may further intensify. On the other hand, the AI industry has entered a new round of capital competition. OpenAI has officially filed for an IPO, Anthropic is preparing for its listing, SpaceX has launched its IPO roadshow, and Google and NVIDIA continue to expand their computing power investments, while Google is making large-scale purchases of TPUs from Intel, indicating that the global AI infrastructure arms race is accelerating. However, new questions are emerging in the market: with interest rates remaining high, bond yields rising, and a large influx of IPOs and new share issuances, will the capital market still have sufficient liquidity to support such a massive valuation system? From a funding structure perspective, the biggest risk is no longer just inflation or war, but that global funding demand is beginning to outpace liquidity supply. AI companies need financing, governments need to issue bonds, energy shocks are pushing up inflation, while the Federal Reserve is unable to provide the easing environment the market expects. If the main theme of the market over the past two years has been the growth expectations brought by AI, then what the market really needs to verify in the coming months is whether these growth stories are sufficient to withstand the pressure of higher funding costs. For the crypto market, Bitcoin has broken below its previous support level and completed a liquidity sweep, with the market now testing a key demand zone around $62,000. Structurally, the price has returned to the vicinity of a key support zone formed in February of this year, reflecting that risk appetite is being suppressed by the macroeconomic environment. It's worth noting that if this week's CPI exceeds expectations again, the market will further strengthen expectations of a Fed rate hike, and risk assets may face a new round of liquidity pressure; conversely, if inflation data is lower than expected, it could provide a short-term respite for recently revalued tech stocks and the crypto market. Until a new macroeconomic pricing is completed, market volatility is likely to remain high.