Morgan Stanley responds to SemiAnalysis's post yesterday that dragged down US stocks: It agrees that CPO short-term volume growth is below expectations, and 800V mass production is progressing as scheduled.

According to Mars Finance, on June 10th, Morgan Stanley responded to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered yesterday's significant correction in US stocks. Morgan Stanley agreed with SemiAnalysis's view that short-term CPO volume was falling short of expectations, but maintained its bullish outlook on explosive growth in CPO after 2028. It also explicitly refuted claims that 800V mass production was delayed until 2028, stating that supply chain research indicates 800V racks will still proceed as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that two key technology paths for AI data centers had experienced significant delays, which was cited as one of the main reasons for yesterday's significant correction in US AI industry stocks. Regarding CPO, Morgan Stanley and SemiAnalysis largely agree on their assessments—Morgan Stanley estimates global optical engine shipments in 2027 will be only 6 to 7 million units, far below the market consensus of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraint stems from manufacturing bottlenecks: TSMC's SoIC yield is only 50%-60%, and downstream assembly yield is as low as 20%-50%. Short-term sentiment will remain under pressure. However, Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating on key CPO stocks such as TSMC, predicting that 2026 to 2028 will be a transitional phase with pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnects coexisting. The real explosive growth of CPO will begin in 2028. On the issue of 800V DC power supply cabinets, Morgan Stanley's position is diametrically opposed to SemiAnalysis's. Morgan Stanley's supply chain research indicates that the mass production process for 800V power supplies has not been interrupted. NVIDIA stated at the GTC conference in Taipei that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production in the third quarter of 2026, and Delta Electronics is expected to become the first manufacturer to mass-produce standalone 800V cabinets, with the first batch of products expected to be delivered to leading hyperscale cloud providers in North America in the fourth quarter of 2026. The substantial difference between the two reports lies in the direction of ±400V DC solutions—SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will coexist with 800V for a long time, while Morgan Stanley's research shows that major cloud providers have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This divergence will directly affect the competitive landscape of the power supply chain and supplier positioning. Delta's first shipments in Q4 2026 and the finalization of ±400V sidecar orders by the end of the year will be the ultimate test of the two companies' judgments.