Bitunix analysts: Energy inflation pushed CPI to a three-year high, but cooling core data prompted the market to pause its bets on interest rate hikes.

According to Mars Finance, on June 11th, the US May CPI rose to 4.2% year-on-year, a near three-year high. Energy prices increased by 23.5% year-on-year, with gasoline prices surging by 40.5%, contributing over 60% of the inflation increase in a single month. This data once again proves that the Middle East situation and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz have become the main sources of current global inflationary pressures, and energy prices are gradually affecting economic activity through transportation and business costs. However, the market is more focused on another set of data. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than market expectations, indicating that the energy shock has not yet fully spread to the service and consumption sectors. Housing, healthcare, and entertainment prices maintained a moderate increase, but prices for auto insurance, new cars, and household goods declined, reflecting that domestic demand has not experienced runaway inflation. This has led the market to reassess its policy path. Although the overall CPI continues to climb, the cooling of core inflation makes it unnecessary for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates immediately in the short term. The market is currently more focused on whether next week's meeting will shift to a neutral-to-hawkish stance, rather than directly raising interest rates. For financial markets, this report reveals an important signal: the current risk has shifted from overheated demand to supply shocks. If energy prices continue to remain high due to geopolitical influences, the world will face pressure of "high inflation but slowing economic momentum"; conversely, if energy supply returns to normal, core inflation still has a chance to return to a downward trajectory. For the crypto market, the key short-term issue for Bitcoin is no longer just whether the Fed will raise interest rates, but whether global liquidity can continue to expand. If energy inflation further pushes up real funding costs, risk asset valuations will be suppressed; however, if core inflation remains under control, market concerns about liquidity are expected to ease.