Data: Bitcoin may be nearing a structural bottom, but potential selling pressure in the market has not yet been exhausted.

According to Mars Finance, CryptoQuant released a new report on social media stating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new bear market low of $59,000, currently only 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historically, this valuation level is often associated with bear market bottoms. In past bear markets, prices have typically bottomed out at levels close to or slightly below the realized price, meaning that from a purely valuation perspective, Bitcoin may be approaching a structural bottom. However, demand conditions remain extremely unfavorable. Last week, total demand for Bitcoin (speculative futures and explicit spot) plummeted to -652,000 BTC, the largest drop since January 2022. Long-term spot demand (1-year explicit demand growth) has also turned negative, falling below the trend line to its worst level since February 2024. ETF purchases are contracting at the fastest rate since its launch in January 2024, with 30-day ETF demand growth in unprecedented negative territory. This indicates that US institutional demand, the primary structural driver of the current cycle, has not only stagnated but has reversed into net selling at an unprecedented pace. Realized losses among Bitcoin holders have not yet reached capitulation levels. In the past 30 days, sellers have realized losses of 187,000 BTC, compared to 400,000 BTC when Bitcoin first hit $60,000 in this bear market in February 2026, and a staggering 1.2 million BTC at the cycle bottom following the FTX crash in November 2022. The absence of a capitulation peak suggests that the market has not yet exhausted its willing sellers. From a price perspective, a bottom may be near, but a constructive demand recovery is needed for a bull market, a condition not yet evident in the data. Until aggregate demand stabilizes, ETF flows recover, and realized losses reach peak levels for capitulation-style selling, the current price level should be interpreted as a potential valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cyclical bottom.