More than half of economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates before the end of the year, and Trump's demands for rate cuts are unlikely to influence Warsh's decision.

According to Mars Finance, a survey conducted by the Financial Times in conjunction with the Clark Center for Business at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business on June 16th, involving 47 economists, showed that more than half of the respondents expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of 2026 to address inflation levels approaching 3.8%. This represents a significant reversal in market expectations compared to early March when most economists anticipated a rate cut. Despite the peace agreement reached between the US and Iran, the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the easing of energy price pressures, many economists believe that the transmission of inflation to the real economy will continue, and high inflation may persist for an extended period. The market generally expects that the first FOMC meeting chaired by new Fed Chairman Warsh will maintain interest rates unchanged. However, with the US job market remaining robust and economic growth resilient, voices within the Fed supporting further rate hikes are increasing. Joe Lavorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation and former advisor to US Treasury Secretary Bessenter, stated that Trump's continued calls for rate cuts will not influence Warsh's policy judgment; the path of interest rates will ultimately depend on economic data. Furthermore, a Financial Times survey shows that nearly 70% of economists surveyed believe there is a higher than normal probability of a correction of more than 20% in the S&P 500 index in the coming year, and that current valuations of technology stocks, especially semiconductor stocks, are too high, with a risk of structural bubbles in the market.