"The Fed's mouthpiece": Warsh's debut has three key points to watch, with attention focused on whether he will remove the "dodging bias" statement.

According to Odaily Odaily, Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," stated that there are three key takeaways from Warsh's first Fed meeting: 1. Will the phrase "accommodative bias" be removed? If so, what will replace it? Since 2024, the phrase "additional adjustments" in the policy statement has consistently signaled that the next move in interest rates is more likely to be a decrease than an increase. This phrase sparked controversy at the last Fed meeting and now seems somewhat untenable. Removing it would satisfy all parties: hawks want it gone, while Warsh can portray it as a reform, not a signal of a shift to a hawkish stance. Even Trump hinted at this move during Warsh's inauguration. 2. Will the "dot plot" take over as the guiding tool? Who will predict rate hikes? The Federal Reserve will release its first interest rate projections since March; at that time, 12 of the 19 officials expected at least one rate cut in 2026. Now, most expect no rate cuts; I'm watching to see how many people predict rate hikes—and whether Warsh, a long-time skeptic of the dot plot, will submit his own projections or downplay its importance by not participating in the vote. 3. How will Warsh communicate at the press conference? The reason why the Fed Chair's remarks can sway the market is that people believe he controls the majority vote—that is, his words represent the direction of the committee, not just his personal will. Warsh leads a dissenting group that is not necessarily entirely under his control. If he can faithfully convey his colleagues' views, he can begin to establish authority as their representative; otherwise, his colleagues will express their opinions elsewhere (such as by voting against). Under a chair who tends to reduce signaling, those "dissenting votes" may themselves become a tool for signaling. (Jinshi)