Bitcoin remained around the $64,000 mark, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance suppressing the positive impact of the Iranian ceasefire; ETFs saw net outflows for the sixth consecutive week.

According to Mars Finance, on June 22nd, Bitcoin remained around $64,000 on Monday, trapped in a range-bound trading pattern. Last week, the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, officially ending over 100 days of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, briefly pushing Bitcoin above $67,000. However, the upward momentum was immediately suppressed by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. On the policy front, new Fed Chairman Warsh released hawkish signals at his first FOMC meeting, with CME FedWatch showing a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting, and the market expecting at least one 25 basis point rate hike this year. The May CPI reached 4.2% year-on-year, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target, completely dashing expectations of a rate cut. The US Dollar Index (DXY) subsequently rebounded to the 100.6-100.8 range, exerting historic pressure on Bitcoin. In terms of capital flows, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a cumulative net outflow of $63.5 billion over the past 30 days, a record high. Signs of institutional fund inflows remain unclear. In the options market, 1-month implied volatility is around 39%, while realized volatility has risen to over 42%, indicating that actual price fluctuations are exceeding market pricing and showing signs of weakness rather than directional confidence. Approximately $1.8 billion in short options positions are concentrated below $62,000. If the price breaks below this level, the selling pressure from market makers forced to hedge will further accelerate the decline, potentially triggering a stampede-like drop to $60,000. Analysts have set the near-term range for Bitcoin at $60,000 to $67,000, believing the market is in a state of "balance between support and resistance forces."