Micron's earnings report will test the AI storage bull market, with the market expecting its market capitalization to fluctuate by more than $150 billion.

According to Mars Finance, Micron Technology (MU.O) will release its third-quarter fiscal year results after the US stock market closes on Wednesday, June 24. Prior to the earnings release, Micron's stock price had surged more than sevenfold over the past year, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion. The market expects Micron's stock price to fluctuate by approximately 14% after the earnings report, corresponding to a market capitalization change of over $150 billion. This surge is primarily driven by AI demand fueling a severe shortage of memory chips, leading to a collective rise in memory stocks such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. For the third fiscal quarter ending in May, the market consensus expects Micron's revenue to increase by 279% year-over-year to $35.3 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising from $1.91 to $20.28. Given the company's rapid growth, investors may focus not only on the completed quarter's performance but also on the fourth-quarter guidance. Analysts currently expect Micron's fourth-quarter revenue to be $42.5 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $24.80. If the company provides significantly better-than-expected guidance again, the stock price may continue to rise; however, at current valuation levels, any key indicators falling short of expectations could trigger a significant pullback. Profit margin is also a core variable. Micron's gross margin reached 74.4% in the second fiscal quarter, higher than 36.8% in the same period last year and 56% in the first fiscal quarter. The company previously projected a gross margin of 81% for the third fiscal quarter. If the gross margin continues to rise in the fourth fiscal quarter, it will indicate that the storage pricing environment is still strengthening. Furthermore, the market will be watching whether management continues its assessment that "the tight supply of data center and AI-related storage will continue beyond 2026." Micron previously stated that for some key customers, the company can only meet 50% to two-thirds of their demand in the medium term.