Bitunix Analyst: PCE Brings No Surprises, Real Variables Remain the Federal Reserve and the Dollar

According to Mars Finance, on June 26th, the US May PCE data met market expectations, with overall PCE increasing by 4.1% year-on-year and core PCE increasing by 3.4%. While the data did not further push up inflation expectations, it also did not provide any reason to support interest rate cuts. Market focus quickly shifted from the data itself to the Fed's policy framework, especially after Waller continued to downplay forward guidance. Funds continued to focus on the possibility of "high interest rates remaining for longer," rather than waiting for a policy shift. Recent statements from Fed officials further reinforced this expectation. Williams admitted that inflation returning to 2% might be delayed until 2028, and Goolsby also believed that core inflation remained high and supported avoiding providing a clear interest rate path. Meanwhile, the dollar continued its strength, all major US banks passed stress tests, and the AI industry continued to attract capital inflows, all of which made global funds more inclined to remain in dollar assets rather than betting on an easing cycle in advance. On the other hand, Middle East risks have not been completely eliminated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has again taken a hard line on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on merchant ships and disputes over strait management indicate that the ceasefire agreement is still subject to change. While crude oil exports and shipping have not yet been substantially impacted, the market has begun to reassess the uncertainties in the energy supply chain and their potential impact on future inflation. For the crypto market, the real focus now is not on individual inflation data, but on whether dollar liquidity continues to be absorbed by the high-interest-rate environment. As the market gradually accepts that the Federal Reserve will not rush to ease policy in the short term, the pace of valuation recovery for risk assets may still be limited. In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate around risk appetite, the strength of the dollar, and changes in overall liquidity. The market still needs to pay attention to the impact of changes in macroeconomic policy expectations on crypto asset market sentiment.