Institutions: Two historically rare divergent signals have emerged in US stocks, suggesting a 67% probability of a bear market in the next three months.

According to Mars Finance, on June 30th, research firm Ned Davis Research stated that the US stock market has recently exhibited two historically rare market divergence signals: firstly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) continues to reach new highs, while the "Big Seven" tech stocks are significantly underperforming; secondly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index have shown a significant divergence. Historical data shows that such situations often occur near important market turning points. Data shows that as of mid-June, on a 26-week rolling basis, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index outperformed the Bloomberg "Big Seven" tech index by over 100 percentage points, and the correlation between the two has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2021. Ned Davis Research pointed out that a similar divergence occurred in 2021, after which the "Big Seven" tech stocks and the semiconductor sector peaked, and the US stock market entered a bear market in 2022. Meanwhile, in the seven trading days leading up to June 25th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5%, a rolling performance difference of 5.5 percentage points. Since the Nasdaq's inception in 1971, such significant divergence has only occurred on about 1% of trading days. Historical statistics show that after similar divergence, the probability of the market entering a bear market within the next three months is approximately 66.9%, significantly higher than the historical average of 24.8%. However, the institution emphasizes that the above statistical pattern does not necessarily mean a bear market is imminent. The current market rally lacks broad participation, and the divergence between different sectors continues to widen. Investors should continue to monitor whether this divergence intensifies further and implement appropriate risk management measures.