The credibility of US employment data is being questioned; the non-farm payrolls "lifeline": if the increase is below 150,000, the Fed is almost certain not to raise interest rates.

According to Mars Finance, on July 2nd, with the June non-farm payroll report about to be released (moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday), the market is showing significant disagreement regarding the accuracy of current US employment data. From March to May this year, the US averaged 188,000 new jobs per month, marking the strongest hiring cycle in three years. However, industry insiders worry that this figure may be inflated: one-off factors such as favorable spring weather for outdoor employment and temporary work related to the World Cup have pushed up the data, and the spring and summer employment trend often shows a "peak followed by a decline." Analysts point out that June's new jobs need to reach or exceed Wall Street's consensus forecast of 110,000 to confirm the sustainability of the employment recovery. If it significantly exceeds expectations by 150,000 or more, the Federal Reserve might seriously consider raising interest rates at its policy meeting this month; if it falls below this threshold, the Fed will almost certainly maintain interest rates unchanged. Other key observations include: • The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month and still at a historically low level; • Recruitment is gradually diversifying across industries, moving away from the previous dominance of the healthcare sector; • Year-on-year wage growth is expected to remain around 3.5%, with no significant inflationary pressure yet. Analysts believe that although the labor market is currently recovering, the reliability and sustainability of the data still need further verification from the June non-farm payrolls report.