Analysis: The proportion of currency held by long-term holders has continued to climb to approximately 78%, and August may become a key window for observing the absorption of buying pressure from the low levels of February.

According to Mars Finance, on July 3rd, analyst Darkfost stated that Long-Term Holders (LTH) currently hold approximately 15.6 million BTC, representing about 78% of the circulating supply, and this proportion continues to rise. In December 2023, this figure was approximately 16.8 million BTC. Since then, LTH holders have conducted large-scale distributions at several peaks in this cycle, significantly impacting market trends. The current increase in LTH holdings corresponds to the conversion of BTC purchased approximately six months ago when the price was around $90,000 into "long-term holdings," and does not necessarily indicate that LTH holders are continuously increasing their holdings. Because this indicator is based on the UTXO model, BTC must be held for at least six months to be included in LTH; therefore, the current figure only indicates that the number of BTC in LTH status is higher than the number sold by LTH holders. Furthermore, if this indicator continues to rise significantly in August, it will reflect that BTC purchased during the period when BTC fell below $60,000 in February of this year has begun to enter the long-term holding phase. At that time, it will be possible to further observe whether the market decline at that time truly stimulated new demand. Meanwhile, this cycle is consistent with history. During the period from the end of the bear market to the first peak of the bull market, the proportion of LTH holdings rose rapidly, and then entered the distribution phase in which long-term holders distributed their shares to the market.