Bank of America: US equity funds experienced their largest weekly outflow since March, and "sell signals" have persisted for six weeks.

According to BlockBeats, Bank of America's latest weekly report, released on July 3, showed that US equity funds experienced a net outflow of $17.2 billion in the week ending July 1, marking the largest weekly net redemption since March 2026 and the second consecutive week of net outflows. Meanwhile, the Bank of America Bull/Bear Indicator rose from 9.1 to 9.5, remaining in the "extremely bullish" zone. Michael Hartnett, Bank of America's chief investment strategist, stated that the "sell signal" triggered by the indicator on May 20 remains in effect. Bank of America data shows that since 2002, the indicator has triggered "sell signals" 17 times, with global stock markets subsequently experiencing an average decline of 2% to 3% over the following 2 to 3 months, resulting in an accuracy rate of approximately 60% and a historical maximum drawdown of 15% to 20%. In terms of fund flows, investment-grade bonds attracted $17.2 billion in inflows this week, marking the 13th consecutive week of net inflows; high-yield bonds saw inflows of $3.4 billion, the largest weekly inflow since May 2025. Technology funds saw inflows of $14.3 billion this week, with year-to-date inflows potentially reaching a record $152 billion. Meanwhile, Japanese equity funds attracted $1.9 billion this week, the largest weekly inflow in nearly seven weeks. Amid outflows from US stocks, the semiconductor sector faced significant pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11% over the past two trading days. JPMorgan strategists pointed out that the extreme overperformance of US semiconductor stocks relative to AI and hyperscale cloud computing companies has created an unsustainable valuation gap, which is expected to eventually narrow. Commodities and gold continued to be under pressure, with gold seeing outflows of $3 billion this week, marking the 7th consecutive week of outflows; cryptocurrencies saw outflows of $2 billion, the largest weekly outflow since November 2025.