Bitunix analysts: The Federal Reserve has downplayed policy guidance, with "uncertainty premium" becoming the main battleground, rather than the interest rate path.

According to BlockBeats, on July 7th, the focus of global markets is gradually shifting from interest rate direction to policy communication methods. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that forward guidance should not be a fixed framework and could even be completely eliminated if necessary, reiterating that the central bank will not deliberately maintain low interest rates to address government fiscal deficits. This means that the market will rely more on real-time economic data rather than pre-determined interest rate paths from central banks, reducing policy predictability. It also means that asset prices will become increasingly sensitive to inflation, employment, and economic data, and market volatility may refocus during periods of major data releases. On the other hand, Middle East risks have escalated again. Reports of missile attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surfaced again, threatening to shatter the previously established window of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Trump reiterated that he would not rule out escalating military action if negotiations fail. However, Saudi Arabia lowered its official selling price for crude oil to the Asian market in August, reflecting relatively ample supply. The energy market is currently still oscillating between "geopolitical risks" and "supply easing," and whether oil prices can rebound in the short term depends on whether the conflict further impacts actual supply. On the other hand, the issues of Japanese debt pressure and the continued weakening of the yen have resurfaced, and market doubts about the Bank of Japan's policy space have not subsided. The trend of global capital flowing into high-yield dollar assets has not changed significantly. For the crypto market, what truly deserves attention is not a single event, but the loss of the "certainty" provided by central bank forward guidance. As policy begins to rely entirely on data, geopolitical risks escalate, and global liquidity remains tight, the crypto market will continue to be primarily driven by changes in risk appetite and liquidity momentum in the short term. Price movements will continue to be repeatedly disrupted by macroeconomic events and market sentiment. Until capital flows truly form a unified direction, a cautious stance is expected to persist.