Kalshi predicts the probability of a US government shutdown has risen to 70%.

On September 30th, according to data from the prediction platform Kalshi, there was a 70% chance of a US government shutdown on Wednesday. Earlier today, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its contingency plan for a government shutdown, which will suspend all operations and refrain from publishing economic data during the shutdown. US lawmakers are currently leaning toward forcing a federal government shutdown, which could deprive policymakers, business leaders, and investors of critical data needed to assess the state of the US economy. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, said that with the Federal Reserve's next meeting on October 28-29, it would be difficult to justify another interest rate cut without the latest government data. Some officials are already cautious and want to see more data. Neil Bradley, chief policy officer of the US Chamber of Commerce, said that a government shutdown would not push the US economy into a recession, but it would come at a cost and increase the uncertainty that businesses and business leaders are already dealing with.