HTX DeepThink: As precious metals rise unilaterally, the crypto market may be waiting for sentiment to spill over.

According to Mars Finance, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the main macroeconomic themes in the crypto market this week still revolve around three threads: the Federal Reserve holding rates steady, the economy remaining resilient, and the strengthening trend in precious metals. The FOMC meeting on Thursday is highly likely to maintain interest rates unchanged. The market's focus is on the strength of Powell's statements and whether he leaves room for further rate cuts in 2026 in the dot plot or policy statements. From a macroeconomic perspective, the continued decline in inflation provides the Federal Reserve with room for patience. Both the December CPI and core CPI confirmed a downward trend in inflation, and the price pressure from tariffs is officially considered a one-off disturbance. At the same time, the job market is showing a state of "neither expanding nor contracting," significantly reducing the urgency for a policy shift given the still robust GDP growth momentum. This makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to release more aggressive easing signals in the short term. For crypto assets, this means that liquidity expectations are unlikely to open up further, but risk appetite has not been significantly dampened. The US dollar remains weak due to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, providing medium-term support for Bitcoin and the crypto market. However, if the FOMC does not release unexpectedly dovish signals, the market is more likely to remain in a high-level consolidation phase rather than quickly establishing a one-sided trend. The continued strength of precious metals is noteworthy. Gold and silver exhibit a rare "self-consistent upward trend"—prices continue to rise regardless of whether risk assets are fluctuating. This reflects structural supply and demand imbalances, the intervention of trend-following funds, and a long-term repricing of fiat currency credibility. Historical experience shows that after precious metals enter this phase, Bitcoin often exhibits a lag effect, and is more likely to initiate the next phase of its price evolution after the sentiment towards precious metals has spilled over.