Wintermute: The bear market isn't over yet, but the next rebound might be "different from the past".

On February 3rd, Wintermute published a new article stating that Bitcoin's price recently fell below the $80,000 mark, the first time since the Trump tariffs in April 2025. Over the weekend, the crypto market saw a total liquidation of $2.55 billion, the tenth largest liquidation event in history. The market generally believes that this decline was not triggered by a single negative factor, but rather by the combined effect of multiple macroeconomic factors, including: weaker-than-expected earnings reports from Mag7, which shook the AI narrative; Kevin Warsh's unexpected nomination as Federal Reserve Chair; and a sharp correction in the precious metals market. Silver, in particular, plummeted by as much as 26% intraday, triggering a CME circuit breaker and exacerbating the overall risk-averse sentiment in the market. Analysis points out that BTC broke down after oscillating between $85,000 and $95,000 for the past two months. This, coupled with insufficient liquidity and high leveraged positions over the weekend, amplified the selling pressure. Currently, crypto assets are the weakest performing among risk assets, indicating that the market is still in a bear market and price rediscovery phase. However, institutions believe that unlike structural crises such as FTX and Luna, this round of adjustments is more driven by macroeconomic factors and portfolio positioning, without any systemic risk contagion. If macroeconomic uncertainties ease in the second half of 2026 and the path of monetary policy becomes clearer, market sentiment and investor attention are expected to recover relatively quickly.