Analysis: Bitcoin market sentiment hit an all-time low; contrarian investors believe $60,000 is the bottom for BTC.

According to ChainCatcher, citing Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may be the bottom of this cycle. Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell to a record low of 7 over the weekend, indicating the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows the market is deeply oversold, a situation similar to that seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 pandemic-induced market crash, potentially creating conditions for a rebound. CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that a rise in Bitcoin price of approximately $10,000 could trigger over $5.45 billion in short position liquidations, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance could drive short covering. However, structural risks in the market remain. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin remains well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it is still in a phase dominated by selling pressure. Net buy/sell volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and Binance's buy/sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market. Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. Looking at longer timeframes, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.